Venture Capitalist at Theory

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1 minute read / Jan 7, 2024 /

Make Hay When the Sun Shines : Liquidity in Startup Exits

Companies aren’t bought. They’re sold.

Hang around startups & venture capital long enough, & you’ll hear this aphorism. It means it’s much easier to sell a company when there’s plenty of demand.

In any given year, there’s an 82% chance the value of startup liquidity will change by more than 77% - both up & down.

Aside from certain crypto tokens, it’s hard to find a less reliable market than the VC exit market.


In 2021, the sun shone brilliantly. 2023 marked the worst year in 14 - since the Global Financial Crisis.


Here’s the volatility visualized across web3, consumer, & software startups.

In the last few years, we’ve seen markets with deep liquidity. Just as quickly, it’s volatized - poof. It’s a reminder to make hay when the sun shines.

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2024 Predictions