Startup Best Practices 22 - Using Scenario Planning for Strategic Decisions

There are two common ways to model the growth of a SaaS business I’ve seen in pitches. the first one helps founders develop a sense for the trajectory of the business, while the second one helps teams plan for different scenarios and model the trade-offs with each strategic decision.

The Percent Growth technique averages the company’s growth rate over the last quarter or so and projects it forward. For example, if a SaaS company has sustained 15% monthly growth over the last three months and is currently at $10k in MRR, the projections might look like the table below. Frequently in these models, costs are also modeled growing at a fixed monthly rate. In our example, I’ve assumed about 10 employees with a 10% increase in costs.

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Your Customer's Top 3 Priorities

What are your top three priorities in your job right now? If I asked you that question, I suspect within a minute or two you could articulate them. Is the software you are selling at your SaaS startup solving one of those three needs for your target customer? And, if it is, does your software meaningfully differentiate along one of the key competitive axes that your customer cares about?

No one has enough time in their jobs to attend to the fifth or sixth most important thing today. So, one of the questions I typically ask potential customers during diligence calls is, “Where on your list of priorities does this problem fall: top 3, top 5, or top 10?” If the answer is not top three, then the software is not important enough for a buyer to prioritize and champion budget. The startup will observe slower sales cycles because the sales team will be challenged to create urgency within the buyer’s company.

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Disruptive Innovation in SaaS by Competing with Non-Consumption

Clay Christensen, a Harvard Business School professor, asserted in a recent interview that we understand only half of the marketing puzzle: the marketing science involved in a competitive ecosystem, when consumers are buying millions of products. In these markets, concepts like Westendorp Price Sensitivity and conjoint analyses work. But to incite disruption requires a different set of marketing skills.

In the Innovator’s Solution, Christensen proposes the idea of competing against non-consumption. He says, “A new-market disruption is an innovation that enables a larger population of people, who previously lacked the money or skill, now to begin buying and using a product and doing the job for themselves.”

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The Future of Collaboration - Instant Data

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Questions interlace conversations. Where is Priceline stock trading? Where do the San Francisco Giants stand in this year’s pennant race? When hiring a litigation attorney, what are the key questions to ask? Are there any grammatically sound sentences in English where every word starts with the same letter? All of these questions are instantly answerable. These are the types of questions we ask at the dinner table, when sharing a drink with a friend at a bar, and answer in a few seconds a mobile phone with a Google search.

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In Every Great Product There's a Bit of Magic

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Numi is a little calculator with a twist. Unlike most calculators, it understands English and other languages. I’ve used many different types of calculators: from the Texas Instruments TI-89 graphing calculator to a HP 12C with its Polish notation, to software calculators Excel and R. All of them employ similar user interfaces. There’s a syntax to translate the user’s desires into something the calculator can understand.

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From Modest Roots to $10.7T in Market Cap

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The value of all public technology companies exceeds $10.7T. At the beginning of 2016, that figure touched an all time high of $11T. It’s taken more than a decade for public technology companies to replicate/recreate the market cap observed in the dot-com era, even when adjusting for inflation.

The preponderance of that increase has occurred in the last four years. In 2012, global technology companies combined in value to $6.7T, an annual growth rate of about 12.5%.

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A Technology Innovation Leading to a Go-To-Market Advantage

What do you look for in SaaS companies? It’s hard to answer this question concisely because there are so many different ways of building a great software business. The best way I’ve found to describe it is a technology innovation leading to a go-to-market advantage. That’s how I answered the question in the 20Minute VC podcast with Harry Stebbings.

Software is a competitive world. Sales and marketing software vendors have flourished, growing from a few hundred to several thousand in the span of a few years. The same is true for vertical software, developer software, and every category in between. In such a contentious ecosystem, how does a new business develop a sustainable competitive advantage?

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Authenticity in Leadership

We all recognize great leadership when we see it. But what characterizes great leadership? Is it an inspirational speaker articulating a goosebump-inducing vision? Or an executive with the five universally praised characteristics Stanford professor Jeffrey Pfeiffer identified: modesty, authenticity, truthfulness, trustworthiness and selflessness? Or is it a great manager of people, someone who understands the aspirations of each report, charts a career path, assigns meaningful work along that path, and champions their promotion? Or perhaps leadership means having the courage to make the hard, but right decision?

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The Strategic Shift in Revenue for SaaS Startups as They Scale

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As a SaaS startup grows, recurring revenue begins to fuel the company. Not too far into the future, the existing customer base begins to contribute more of the startup’s revenue than new customers and bookings. Each startup will observe this revenue composition transition at a different point in its evolution because it’s a function of growth rate and churn rate. This evolution demands a focus on retention, upsell and cross-sell.

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What's Really Happening in the US Venture Fundraising Market in Early 2016

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The startup fundraising market in 2016 has been difficult to characterize. Punctuated by a concentrated decline in public tech stocks, the sentiment in Startupland has changed from resolute ebullience to a calmness approaching caution. Two months in, we can analyze January and February data. This posts analyses US headquartered information technology companies which VC-led investment rounds, except for the $793M Series C in Magic Leap, which I excluded as an outlier.

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