OpenAI receives on average 1 query per American per day.

Google receives about 4 queries per American per day.

Since then 50% of Google search queries have AI Overviews, this means at least 60% of US searches are now AI.

It’s taken a bit longer than I expected for this to happen. In 2024, I predicted that 50% of consumer search would be AI-enabled.

But AI has arrived in search.

If Google search patterns are any indication, there’s a power law in search behavior. SparkToro’s analysis of Google search behavior shows the top third of Americans who search execute upwards of 80% of all searches - which means AI use isn’t likely evenly distributed - like the future.1

User Group2 % of Users % of All Searches
Heavy Searchers 34% 84%
Moderate Searchers 22% 11%
Light Searchers 44% 5%

Websites & businesses are starting to feel the impacts of this. The Economist’s piece “AI is killing the web. Can anything save it?” captures the zeitgeist in a headline.

A supermajority of Americans now search with AI. The second-order effects from changing search patterns are coming in the second-half of this year & more will be asking, “What Happened to My Traffic?”

AI is a new distribution channel & those who seize it will gain market share.

  1. William Gibson saw much further into the future! ↩︎

  2. This is based on a midpoint analysis of the SparkToro chart, is a very simple analysis, & has some error as a result. ↩︎