Receive these posts by email like 150k+ others!

    How VCs Value Rainbow Foals in 2022 by @ttunguz

    Venture Capitalist at Theory

    About / Categories / Subscribe / Twitter

    2 minute read / Jun 21, 2022 /

    How VCs Value Rainbow Foals in 2022

    When Aileen Lee published “Welcome to the Unicorn Club” - the article that coined the word unicorn for a $1b startup - the average public SaaS company commanded a market cap of $1.5b.

    I remember thinking a $1b M&A or IPO was so rare an investor might hope to achieve it once or twice in a career. Fewer than 15 SaaS companies traded on public exchanges then. With at least 20 firms and several partners per firm chasing unicorns, upstarts faced stiff odds.

    From 2007 to 2016, $1.5b marked the upside case for most VC software and infrastructure investment memos.

    2015 Return Multiple by Round
    Round Post, $m Return Multiple at $1.5b
    Seed 8.7 172x
    Series A 28.4 53x
    Series B 74.8 20x
    Series C 139 11x
    Series D 269 5.6x

    If you were to read a memo from that era, you might have seen a table resembling the one above. It shows the potential return multiple from Seed to Series D at the median post-money of the era spanning 172x to 5.6x depending on the round.

    image

    Within five years, the median public SaaS market cap exploded from $1.5b to $9.8b in 2021. The return potential 10xed. The largest startups kissed $100b in market cap and higher.

    Return projections skyrocketed. Competition fueled a surge in valuations.

    Then the stock market’s fall reversed the effect. Mean market cap halved to about $4.5b.

    2022 Return Multiple by Round
    Round Post, $m Return Multiple at $4.5b RM at $1.5b (2015)
    Seed 35.2 128x 172x
    Series A 101 45x 53x
    Series B 352 12.8x 20x
    Series C 857 5.3x 11x
    Series D 2,226 1.9x 5.6x

    Re-running the multiples math for today, return projections for the typical growth round collapsed. Series Cs dropped from 11x to 5.3x. Series Ds cratered from 5.6x to 1.9x by 66% - which is inline with the public market drop.

    The more market caps on unicorns compress, the greater the downward pressure on rainbow foals’ valuations.

    The silver lining: the median public software company in 2022 is three times as valuable as in 2015, which suggests valuations should settle higher than that era.


    Read More:

    Bezos' Shareholder Letter in 2000