NVIDIA guided Q3 to $108b, but hyperscaler growth slowed to 13% sequentially. The buyers making up the difference need financing, so DSO jumped 15 days to 60 & the commitment stack reached $581b including a $101b equity portfolio in its own customers.
AI infrastructure shortages do not hit simultaneously. They cascade in multi-year waves across the server rack & into the physical grid : GPUs in 2023, memory & flash in 2024–2025, CPUs in late 2025, spinning disk in 2026, & data centers at $20b per gigawatt.
SpaceXAI spent $18b of capital last quarter, $16b of it on AI, a hyperscaler's budget covered 12% by operations. Equity & credit have both marked it down.
Ollama has become the largest developer platform for open models, with 8.9m developers & one million new installs each week. Today we announced our investment in the Series B.
Prioritize routing over model choice. Most AI work runs on cheap local models.
The inference market is the largest in software. We invested in Sail's Series A to build queuing infrastructure for long-horizon agents that run for hours.
Anthropic trades at 17x EV/NTM on 165% growth, a 65% discount to Palantir. Capital intensity, profitability uncertainty & growth volatility explain the gap.
Ad-supported AI is viable. A 4x B200 cluster breaks even with one search ad every 40 minutes or one content ad every 3 minutes. For heavier workloads, $10/month plus 8 ads per day covers a side project.
Google Cloud shocked the street with 63% growth in Q1 2026. Amazon, Google & Microsoft reported earnings with combined quarterly capex hitting $112B while cloud growth diverged dramatically.
GPU spot market data from Ornn shows B200 rental prices spiking from $2.31 to $4.95 per hour since early March. The spread over H200 has doubled & the timing aligns with frontier model releases.
